2025
Sections
• Top Stories - Front Page
• National
• State and Local
• Business and Economic
• Lifestyle and Entertainment
• Sports
• Editorials
• Comments
The Not Yet Gazette is a fictional newspaper showing one possible future. The stories in the paper reflect major demographic trends projected for Minnesota.
Projected Minnesota Population Trends
The five major projected population trends that underlie the speculations in The Not Yet Gazette are summarized below:
• Aging
• Concentration in Metropolitan Regions
• Increasing Diversity
• Slower Growth
• Rising Dependency Ratio
These trends were reported in four Minnesota Planning publications, which include discussions of the methodologies and assumptions behind the projections: A Changing Population: The Next 30 Years, August 1993, Minnesota's Changing Counties: The Next 30 Years, October 1993, Tomorrow's Households: The Next 30 Years, February 1994 and Tomorrow's Labor Force: The Next 30 Years, July 1994.
These projection publications are available from Minnesota's Bookstore at 117 University Ave., St. Paul, MN, 55155
Telephone: 612-297-3000 or (800) 657-3757
E-mail: mnbook.list@state.mn.us
Aging
Members of the large baby boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1964) will move into late middle age and early old age during the next 30 years. In 1990, baby boomers were approximately 26 to 43 years old. In the year 2000, they will be 36 to 53; by 2025, they will be 61 to 78.Between 1990 and 2020, the population over age 45 will increase substantially, while the under-45 population will decline. After 2010, the number of people over age 65 will grow dramatically as baby boomers reach this age bracket. The very old population, those age 85 and older, will rise rapidly until 2010, after which its growth will slow, reflecting the low birth rates during the Depression of the 1930s.
From 1990 to 2020, the households that will grow the most will be married-couple families without children, mostly "empty nesters." One-person households will also go up substantially, while married-couple families with children will decline. All of these trends reflect the aging of the baby boom. Older people are much more likely to be empty nesters or to live alone.
Concentration in Metropolitan Regions
The fastest population growth is projected for the Twin Cities region, particularly suburban and semirural exurban areas beyond the suburbs but still within the Twin Cities commuting area. Strong increases are also projected for the Rochester and St. Cloud areas. By 2020, 68 percent of Minnesota's population will live in one of these three metropolitan areas, including their suburban and exurban areas.Most of the state's counties are projected to lose population between now and 2020, with losses of 15 percent or more in southwestern and western Minnesota. At the same time, moderate growth is projected for the lakes region of north-central Minnesota. Counties containing regional centers such as Mankato or Willmar are projected to hold their own or grow moderately, while northeastern Minnesota is projected to continue to lose population.
Rural areas will continue to be older on average than growing metropolitan areas. However, the greatest growth in the elderly population will occur in suburban areas that have been growing rapidly and now have many middle-aged residents.
Increasing Diversity
Populations of color and Hispanic origin will increase much faster than the white population, from 6 percent of the total population in 1990 to about 15 percent in 2020. Especially rapid growth is projected for African Americans, Asians and Latinos.Part of the growth will stem from foreign migration. Immigration and the globalization of the economy will increase Minnesotans' exposure to a variety of cultural influences.
The projections do not show where populations of color will live, but suburban areas and many smaller cities and towns, as well as in Minneapolis and St. Paul, are likely to see substantial increases in these communities.
Populations of color will be younger on average than the white population. By 2020, it is projected that 22 percent of children ages birth to age 14 will be nonwhite, compared to only 5 percent of people 65 or older.
Slower Growth
Minnesota's population will not grow as fast in the future as it has in the past. For the decades 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020, growth is projected to be 6.3 percent, 4.6 percent, and 4 percent, respectively. The aging of the population, which will reduce the number of births and increase the number of deaths, is a major reason for the slower growth.
Similarly, the labor force will expand much more slowly than in previous decades. It is projected to increase 10 percent in the 1990s, 8 percent from 2000 to 2010, and 2 percent from 2010 to 2020. The modest growth after 2010 will come solely from higher rates of participation. The number of working-age people ages 15 to 64 will rise until about 2010, when it will begin to fall.
Like population and the labor force, household growth also will be considerably less than in the past. Increases are projected to be 9.4 percent from 1990 to 2000, 9.3 percent from 2000 to 2010, and 7.7 percent between 2010 and 2020.
Rising Dependency Ratio
Elderly people not only will increase in number rapidly after 2010, but they also will account for a larger proportion of the total population. By 2020, 18 percent of Minnesotans are projected to be more than age 65, compared to 12.5 percent in 1990. As this rise in elderly people occurs, the dependency ratio - the ratio of the number of children and elderly to the number of working-age people - also will begin to go up. A relatively small number of workers will have to support a large number of retirees and children, increasing the potential for intergenerational conflict.